Stocks are still in retracement mode after Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, which continues to fuel trade war concerns and risk-off flows. This pressure may not be over yet, especially considering that US indexes appear to have made only a temporary three-wave bounce from the March lows. As a result, risk-off sentiment could keep dollar pairs in consolidation, while some commodity currencies might remain under pressure in the near term.
 

Despite all of this, the euro is surprisingly holding up quite well. You’d expect EURUSD to be trading lower, especially with the threat of fewer car exports from Europe to the US, but the price action says otherwise. Looking at the 2-hour time frame, EURUSD still shows a clean pullback from the March highs, which could be wave four. However, we’re not yet seeing any aggressive bounce, so it’s unclear if the correction is finished. Even if we retest the 1.0735 support, I’d still consider it part of a fourth-wave retracement as long as the market holds above the 1.0530 invalidation level.
 

Grega